The Mathematics of Maybe: Introduction to Probability | Exercise 7.2

Question 4

Toss a paper cup into the air 100 times. After each toss record whether the cup lands on its bottom, upside down on its top or on its side (See Fig. 7.5). Assign probabilities to the outcomes by using experimental probability.

Question diagram 1
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Solution
Understand the Question
  • Experimental Probability is calculated as: P(E)=Number of trials in which the event happenedTotal number of trialsP(E) = \dfrac{\text{Number of trials in which the event happened}}{\text{Total number of trials}}
  • A paper cup is tossed 100100 times, and the landing position (bottom, top, or side) is recorded for each trial.
  • Based on the experimental outcomes, we calculate the empirical probability for each case. Note that since a cup is asymmetrical, the three outcomes are not equally likely.

Step 1 · Record the Experimental Observations

Diagram 1

Total number of tosses =100= 100.

From the experiment, let the observed outcomes be:

  • Landed on bottom =35= 35 times
  • Landed on top =15= 15 times
  • Landed on side =50= 50 times

Step 2 · Calculate Probability for Landing on Bottom

Using the experimental probability formula:

P(bottom)=Number of times it landed on bottomTotal number of tosses=35100\begin{aligned} P(\text{bottom}) &= \dfrac{\text{Number of times it landed on bottom}}{\text{Total number of tosses}} \\[0.6em] &= \dfrac{35}{100} \end{aligned}

Step 3 · Calculate Probability for Landing on Top

Using the experimental probability formula:

P(top)=Number of times it landed on topTotal number of tosses=15100\begin{aligned} P(\text{top}) &= \dfrac{\text{Number of times it landed on top}}{\text{Total number of tosses}} \\[0.6em] &= \dfrac{15}{100} \end{aligned}

Step 4 · Calculate Probability for Landing on Side

Using the experimental probability formula:

P(side)=Number of times it landed on sideTotal number of tosses=50100\begin{aligned} P(\text{side}) &= \dfrac{\text{Number of times it landed on side}}{\text{Total number of tosses}} \\[0.6em] &= \dfrac{50}{100} \end{aligned}
Answer

P(bottom)=35100,P(top)=15100,P(side)=50100P(\text{bottom}) = \dfrac{35}{100}, \quad P(\text{top}) = \dfrac{15}{100}, \quad P(\text{side}) = \dfrac{50}{100}

Common Mistakes
  • Assuming Equally Likely Outcomes: A paper cup is not symmetrical, so you cannot assume the probability of each outcome is 13\dfrac{1}{3}. Experimental frequencies must be used.
  • Probability Sum Check: The sum of all experimental probabilities must always equal 11: 35100+15100+50100=100100=1\dfrac{35}{100} + \dfrac{15}{100} + \dfrac{50}{100} = \dfrac{100}{100} = 1

More questions in Exercise 7.2

Q1

A teacher mixes a large bag of sweets of different colours and randomly selects a sample of 30 sweets. She counts the number of sweets of each colour: 10 red sweets | 8 green sweets | 7 yellow sweets | 5 blue sweets

(i) Calculate the probability that a randomly picked sweet from the sample is green.

(ii) If there are 600 sweets in total in the large bag, estimate how many are likely to be yellow, based on the sample results.

Q2

A survey is conducted at a school where a random sample of 40 students is asked about their favourite club. The responses are are: 14 students: Science Club | 11 students: Arts Club | 9 students: Sports Club | 6 students: Debate Club Assume there are 800 students in the whole school.

(i) What is the probability that a randomly chosen student from the sample prefers the Arts Club?

(ii) Using the sample results, estimate how many students in the whole school are likely to prefer the Sports Club.

Q3

Toss a coin 20 times and record the result each time (heads or tails).

(i) How many times did you get heads?

(ii) How many times did you get tails?

(iii) Calculate the experimental probability of getting heads.

(iv) If you toss the coin once more, what is the probability of getting tails?

Q4

Toss a paper cup into the air 100 times. After each toss record whether the cup lands on its bottom, upside down on its top or on its side (See Fig. 7.5). Assign probabilities to the outcomes by using experimental probability.

Q5

What is the probability of getting an even number when rolling a fair 6-sided die?

Q6

Suppose you roll a 6-sided die 12 times and get a '3' three times.

(i) What is the experimental probability of rolling a '3'?

(ii) What is the theoretical probability of rolling a '3'?

(iii) Why might these probabilities be different? What would you expect to happen if you roll the die 60, 600, or 6000 times?

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