Question 1
Rank the following events on a scale from 0 (Impossible) to 1 (Certain). Label each event: Impossible, less likely, equally likely (even chance), more likely, certain. Give reasons why you gave each event its ranking.
(i) The next Monday will come after Sunday.
(ii) It will snow in Mumbai in July.
(iii) An elephant will walk through your classroom today.
(iv) You will greet at least one friend at school tomorrow.
We will determine the likelihood of each event.
Step 1 — Next Monday
This event describes our calendar. Days of the week follow a fixed order. Sunday is always followed by Monday. This event will definitely happen.
Step 2 — Snow in Mumbai
This event is about weather. Mumbai has a tropical climate. July is its monsoon season. It is hot and humid then. Snow needs very cold temperatures. So, snow cannot happen in Mumbai in July.
Step 3 — Elephant in classroom
This event involves an animal. Elephants are large animals. Classrooms are inside schools. Elephants do not normally enter classrooms. This event cannot happen.
Step 4 — Greet a friend
This event is about school. We meet many friends at school. Greeting friends is a common act. It is very probable to greet someone. But, it is not absolutely guaranteed. We might be absent from school. Or school might be closed. So, it is very likely to happen.
Answer
(i) Certain (Probability = 1) (ii) Impossible (Probability = 0) (iii) Impossible (Probability = 0) (iv) More likely (Probability is close to 1)